A Burndown Chart I Can Live With
Though I am not too pleased with the "Actual Velocity" this is a burndown chart I can live with.
The up tick you see in the first image are from tasks that were added one day and then corresponding amount of estimated effort removed from sprint the following day plus some tasks that just fell out of the sprint as they were found during feedback with the customer to not really be needed.
My trend line is a bit optimistic. If I used a more linear projection like I did in the second graph it would be running right along with the baseline despite only having a 1.375 velocity versus the base line set for 1.75. This is because I minded the gap and dropped a task or two. The polynomial line I used for the trend in this picture is a tad bit optimistic but I like to use different trend line calculation types at different times depending on how the data looks and what I can best foresee. When I say I like to use different types of trend lines I mean within the same sprint changing from day to day if needed. Tomorrow's chart I may have a linear trend line. I almost never start a trend line until half way through the sprint or until some very dominant trend is appearing. Ideally I am managing to the gap so that my baseline is the real trend line. I'd prefer to never have a trend line because I was tracking so closely to the baseline but the real world is never quite so clean so I find a trend line to be a helpful thing at the appropriate time.
The former chart I can live with as opposed to one from the not too distant past which was one I could not live with
That dash-dot line that runs just above where it says 'Sprint Canceled' was my current linear trend line projection. As you can see it was not going to be about minding the gap.The velocity was divergent from what was needed to deliver at all. The reason being resources were cannibalized and I canceled the sprint.
Here the up tick was planned in that some tasks estimates had been deferred with the expectation they would be added in within a few days. Not the ideal way to do it but the reality of the world.
Just thought I'd share two very small sprints and how different they can be when most everything is done in the same manner in terms of preparation.